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Latest analyses


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The downfall of Twitter

The downfall of Twitter

Investors were surprised by Elon Musk's recent interest in buying social network Twitter. This type of investment does not fit at all into the usual business interests of the famous visionary and many have speculated about his reasons for the buyout. Today, everything is different and Musk's interest in Twitter has dried up. Let's take a closer look at what happened and how the original deal to buy out the American firm may end.

The original deal

It didn't take long and as soon as Musk showed interest in acquiring the social network, an offer came from the company, subsequently both parties came to an agreement. The deal was the sale of Twitter to billionaire Musk for USD 44 billion at a price of USD 54.20 per share.* Later, problems began to emerge as the visionary questioned the percentage of spam accounts below 5% reported by the social network and demanded documents to investigate the real situation. The opinions of the parties involved began to diverge here, Musk claiming that the company did not provide him with the necessary data he needed to assess the number of fake or spam accounts on the platform, on the contrary, Twitter presents that all the necessary documents have been supplied from their side.

The cancellation of the acquisition and the consequences for Twitter

The official statement states that Elon Musk wants to terminate the deal to buy Twitter. The reason for the withdrawal from the deal is the lack of information on the number of spam and fake accounts by Twitter. However, the latter will not give up so easily and is determined to close the deal with the billionaire at a pre-agreed price and terms. Thus, the battle between the parties is starting these days and it is difficult to predict who will emerge as the winner from this dispute, as several factors influence the outcome. However, the fact remains that Twitter's share price has fallen rapidly to around USD 32 per share. *


*Twitter's stock performance over the past 5 years. (Source: Investing)

At the beginning of the week, the stock lost 11% to close at $32.65. If we compare the current state with the stock's value circa April, when the whole buyout thing started, we see a drop of about 33% today. * The performance of the stock will depend on how the whole dispute turns out[1].

And how will it play out?

The end of the litigation may have different scenarios. Accurately predicting the outcome is difficult but there are some possibilities to end this drama, and these could fundamentally affect the direction of Twitter's stock performance. Walking away from the deal won't be easy for Musk. The most likely alternative may be that Musk pays a $1 billion termination penalty and Twitter continues to operate at a lower valuation than the original $44 billion.[2]

*Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

[1,2] Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and current expectations, which may be inaccurate, or based on the current economic environment which is subject to change. Such statements are not guaranteeing of future performance. They involve risks and other uncertainties which are difficult to predict. Results could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements.

The content of this material constitutes marketing communication and should not be considered as any type of investment advice and/or investment research and/or a solicitation for any transactions. This material was prepared for informational/educational purposes only and does not imply an obligation to perform investment transactions nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. BCM Begin Capital Markets Cy Ltd and its relevant persons including affiliates, agents, directors, or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness, or completeness of any information/data provided by third parties and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the said information/data. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

More analyses

Profile photo of Lucia Žárska

Chief Analyst at ProfitLevel

Lucia Žárska

Co-founder of the Mafinn website where she educated the general public about different types of investments. As she says, investing can be clear, understandable and accessible to all, you just need to be aware of how to do it. For this reason she decided to pursue her next career into financial markets. As the chief analyst of the brokerage company ProfitLevel she focuses on this topic more deeply and specifically. At the same time she continues to write professional texts about capital markets for the print and online media, also for blogs.

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